The AIM Act Explained: What the HFC Phase-Down Means for Your Refrigerant Supply in 2025 and Beyond
The American Innovation and Manufacturing Act mandates an 85% reduction in HFC production over the next decade. Every year, less virgin refrigerant is produced. Every year, the price goes up. Here's what you need to know.
What the AIM Act Actually Does
Signed into law in December 2020, the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act gives the EPA authority to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) — the family of refrigerants that includes R-410A, R-404A, R-134a, R-407C, and dozens of others.
The phase-down schedule is aggressive: an 85% reduction in HFC production and consumption by 2036, measured against a 2011–2013 baseline. This is not a voluntary program. It is a federal mandate with enforcement authority.
What this means practically: the amount of new HFC refrigerant that can be manufactured in the United States gets smaller every year. Imports are also regulated. The total pool of available virgin refrigerant shrinks on a fixed schedule, regardless of demand.
The math is simple: If demand stays constant and supply drops 85%, prices go up dramatically. The HVAC industry used an estimated 100+ million pounds of HFC refrigerants in recent years. Under the AIM Act, that supply base gets cut to under 15 million pounds by 2036. Something has to fill the gap.
Why R-410A Is Especially Affected
R-410A has been the dominant residential and light commercial refrigerant for the past 15+ years. Virtually every split system installed between 2010 and 2023 uses it. And R-410A has a Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 4,340 times that of CO₂ — meaning every pound that vents into the atmosphere causes the equivalent warming of 4,340 pounds of carbon dioxide.
The EPA's phase-down schedule directly targets high-GWP refrigerants like R-410A. New equipment is transitioning to lower-GWP alternatives like R-32 and R-454B (Puron Advance), but the installed base of R-410A systems is massive — hundreds of millions of units operating across the country that will require service and maintenance for another 15–20 years.
Those systems will need refrigerant. And the supply of new R-410A is shrinking every year.
The Price Trajectory
Refrigerant prices are market-driven and volatile, but the long-term direction is clear: up. R-410A prices have already seen significant movement as the phase-down has begun to take effect. R-22, which went through its own phase-out under the Montreal Protocol, is now selling for multiples of its historical price because new production stopped and the installed base still demands it.
R-410A is following the same trajectory — just faster, because the AIM Act is more aggressive than the Montreal Protocol schedule was.
For HVAC companies, this means the refrigerant sitting in your recovery cylinders and in the units you decommission is becoming more valuable every year — not less.
What ARI-700 Reclaimed Refrigerant Is and Why It Matters
Here is the critical fact that most of the HVAC industry doesn't fully understand yet: reclaimed refrigerant processed to ARI-700 purity standards is legally identical to virgin production refrigerant. It can be sold, used in service, and resold exactly like new refrigerant.
ARI-700 (now AHRI 700) is the industry standard that specifies the purity requirements for reclaimed refrigerants. When refrigerant is recovered from a system, sent to an EPA-certified reclaimer, and processed to ARI-700 spec, it comes out the other end as specification-grade refrigerant — indistinguishable from new.
As virgin HFC production declines, ARI-700 reclaimed refrigerant becomes not just an alternative but the primary supply source. The companies that have established reliable reclaimed refrigerant supply chains will have a significant competitive advantage over those that haven't.
What This Means for Your Business Right Now
Three things worth acting on immediately:
Stop venting. Beyond the EPA enforcement risk, refrigerant you vent is refrigerant you don't get paid for — and it's refrigerant that won't be available in the reclaimed market. Every pound recovered is a pound that can be processed back to ARI-700 spec and returned to supply.
Start recovering into the marketplace. The T&K recovery program buys your recovered refrigerant, processes it through certified reclaimers, and returns it to the national supply network. You get paid for what you recover — based on purity, compliance, and current market prices.
Establish your reclaimed supply access now. T&K partners get priority access to ARI-700 certified reclaimed refrigerant. As phase-downs tighten the market over the next several years, that access becomes increasingly valuable.